How much do you know about what you don’t know? When assessing your own abilities, how good are you at recognizing the limits of your knowledge? A quote attributed to Socrates states that “the only true wisdom is in knowing that you know nothing.” And unfortunately, a cognitive bias known as the Dunning-Kruger Effect demonstrates that most of us have not yet achieved that wisdom.[1] In fact, we’re often the worst at assessing our own abilities, which can spell disaster not only for our personal confidence, but for confidence in our litigation outcomes as well.
The Dunning-Kruger Effect, first identified in 1999 by researchers David Dunning and Justin Kruger,[2] occurs when a person’s lack of knowledge and skills in a certain area causes them to misjudge their own competence.[3] The effect is two-fold. On one hand, this effect causes unskilled people to overestimate their abilities, because their lack of knowledge prevents them from recognizing their own mistakes.[4] On the other hand, this effect causes highly competent people, who excel in a given area, to underestimate their abilities[5] because they are cognizant of the gaps in their knowledge and how much more they can still learn.
Dunning and Kruger’s landmark 1999 study demonstrated this effect in Cornell University undergraduates.[6] Dunning and Kruger conducted three studies to assess students’ abilities in humor, logical reasoning, and grammatical knowledge.[7] After participants took these tests, the study then asked participants to assess their abilities and to predict their test performance.[8] The research found that in all three studies, those who scored poorly on the tests, around the 15th percentile, self-assessed their percentile placements to be around 50% higher than they actually were.[9] Meaning that participants who had radically underperformed were much more confident in their knowledge and abilities than their scores would later indicate. In contrast, those who had performed the best on the tests, were more likely to underestimate their scores.[10] The research posited that this was because increased competence in an area allowed participants to recognize the mistakes they were making and how much they didn’t know,[11] while those who were less competent didn’t know enough to recognize their own shortcomings.[12]
In short, the study demonstrated that underperformers were highly confident that they knew all the answers, and overperforms were certain that they had not known enough.
This demonstration of split confidences can be dangerous. When under the influence of the Dunning-Kruger Effect, underperformers, or unskilled individuals, are likely to be more confident in their own abilities than they should be. Because unskilled individuals often overestimate their abilities, they may not feel the need to ask for help with problems that may arise in their work. And this makes sense. You wouldn’t ask for clarification if you didn’t think that you were confused. But the danger is that this thought process can lead to the submission of substandard, incomplete, or confused work product. And in the law, confusion of a single fact can mean the difference between a guilty or not guilty verdict.
Take, for example, the Dunning-Kruger Effect’s potential influence on judges.[13] Judges are highly competent in the law and are trained to grapple with complicated, nuanced fact-patterns to render decisions. However, even though a judge is highly competent in the law, they may know next to nothing about the technical aspects of a case on which the verdict may turn, such as the malfunction of a car engine, or the medical theory of a certain injury. But because judges are highly capable people who are experts in the law, they may be more likely to assume that they can also easily become experts in technical areas where they have little experience. When judges hear case arguments, or expert testimony, they may take those baseline explanations, overestimate their understanding of them, then render potentially life-altering verdicts on a misinterpretation of facts. Stated differently, judges under the influence of the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be empowered to assume that they have quickly gained skilled knowledge in areas where they have little experience.[14] And because they have little experience in these areas, they may not know enough to recognize gaps in their knowledge that could compel them to ask clarifying questions. This can impact court rulings for critical steps in your case and lead to unfavorable outcomes at every litigation stage.[15]
If this wasn’t troubling enough, the Dunning-Kruger Effect can also impact lawyers by interacting with the optimism bias, another cognitive bias that I’ve discussed in a recent article.[16] The optimism bias causes lawyers to overestimate their likelihood of a good case outcome, even when facts may be unfavorable.[17] Because of the optimism bias, lawyers frequently make judgmental errors regarding the strength of their cases, showing a proclivity to overoptimism and an overestimation of their own abilities to win a case despite bad facts.[18] And as the optimism bias tells a lawyer that they are destined for a positive outcome, the Dunning-Kruger Effect can prevent an inexperienced lawyer from seeing the blind spots in their analysis. Meaning that when reading through case facts, or deciding whether to take a case to trial, an inexperienced attorney could be predisposed to assume that they will win because of both an internalized optimism in the strength of their case, and an overestimation of their abilities. And both of these suppositions could land a case that should have settled straight into the maze of litigation.
What the Dunning-Kruger effect makes clear is that the hallmark of intelligence is knowing what you don’t know.[19] Taking a case through the litigation process is a storm of unknown at every turn. Recognizing that litigation is an uncertain gamble of time and money is the first step towards combating the Dunning-Kruger Effect’s impact on your case, but there is no way to completely eliminate this bias from the litigation process.
The best way to keep the Dunning-Kruger Effect out of your case is to keep your case out of the courtroom. Resolutn is a streamlined alternative settlement solution that seeks to eliminate the bias of human error to the fullest extent possible. You may not know what you don’t know, but Resolutn strives to keep users informed and up to date at every step of the negotiation process. Resolutn consolidates all important information in one easy to use app, so you don’t have to worry about information getting lost. Get started with Resolutn today to feel confident that you’re seeing the full picture of your case.
Learn more about how Resolutn can streamline your settlement discussions on our Features Tab.
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I’ve written similar articles about how cognitive biases disrupt litigation and how Resolutn can help you avoid them. Take a look at our Thought Leadership Tab for these articles and for more ways Resolutn can upgrade your settlement experience.
[1] Why Can We Not Perceive Our Own Abilities, The Decision Lab, https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/dunning-kruger-effect (last accessed December 16, 2022).
[2] Justin Kruger & David Dunning, Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments, 77 J. of Personality and Social Psych. 30 (2000).
[3] The Decision Lab, supra note 1.
[4] Id.
[5] Id.
[6] Kruger & Dunning, supra note 2.
[7] Id.
[8] Id.
[9] Kruger & Dunning, supra note 2; Allison He; The Dunning-Kruger Effect: Why Incompetence Begets Confidence, The New York Times (May, 7, 2020) The Dunning-Kruger Effect: Why Incompetence Begets Confidence – The New York Times (nytimes.com)
[10] Id.
[11] Id.
[12] Id.
[13] Burman York Mathis III, Alice Insanity (Part Two): How the Dunning-Kruger Effect Influences the Outcome of Federal Circuit Decisions, IPWatchdog (Nov. 8, 2021) https://ipwatchdog.com/2021/11/08/alice-insanity-part-two-dunning-kruger-effect-influences-outcome-federal-circuit-decisions/id=139629/.
[14] Id.
[15] Id.
[16] Jeff Eberhard, How Optimism Can Skew Litigation Outcomes, Resolutn https://www.resolutn.com/how-optimism-can-skew-litigation-outcomes/ (last accessed Dec. 16, 2022).
[17] Id.
[18] Eberhard, supra note 15.
[19] He, supra note 9.